A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World in 2021”
来自《2021世界展望》主编汤姆·斯坦迪奇的一封信

来年值得关注的十大趋势 Ten trends to watch in the coming year-书迷号 shumihao.com

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.
你觉得自己幸运吗?数字21和运气、风险、冒险及掷骰子联系在一起。一个标准骰子共有21个点;下注和赛马使用的货币坚尼等值21先令;你必须满21岁才能进入美国赌场;在赌客中流行的包括美国的“黑杰克”(blackjack)在内的一类纸牌游戏总称“21点”。

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks abound, to health, economic vitality and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.
这一切似乎不可思议地适用于异常不确定的一年。赌局的大奖是有机会控制住新冠疫情。但与此同时,在身体健康、经济活力和社会稳定方面都风险重重。随着2021年临近,新的一年有十大趋势值得关注:

1 Fights over vaccines. As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally daunting task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?
一、疫苗争夺战。随着首批疫苗开始批量生产,重心将从研发疫苗的英勇壮举转移到同样异常艰巨的疫苗分配上。在国家内部和国家之间将围绕谁该在何时获得疫苗展开争斗和“疫苗外交”。有一个未知数:多少人会拒绝递到眼前的疫苗?

2 A mixed economic recovery. As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy, as local outbreaks and clampdowns come and go—and governments pivot from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.
二、经济复苏参差不齐。随着经济体从疫情中恢复,复苏会是不均匀的——疫情的局部爆发和压制将此起彼伏,而政府的重心会从拯救企业转向援助失业者。强弱企业间的差距将拉大。

3 Patching up the new world disorder. How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.
三、修补新的世界失序。基于规则的国际秩序正在崩坏,刚入主白宫的拜登能将它修复多少?巴黎气候协定和伊朗核协议是显而易见的起点。但这种崩坏在特朗普上台前就已经发生,在他下台后还将持续。

4 More US-China tensions. Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.
四、更多中美矛盾拉锯。不要指望拜登会喊停和中国的贸易战。他会想要修复与盟友的关系以求更有成效地打这场仗。目前从非洲到东南亚的许多国家都在竭力避免在紧张局势加剧之时选边站队。

5 Companies on the front line. Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.
五、企业冲锋陷阵。美中冲突的另一个前沿阵地是企业,而且不局限于华为和TikTok这样明显的例子,因为商业正变得越来越像一个地缘政治战场。除了来自政府的压力,老板们也面临来自下方的压力,因为员工和客户要求他们在气候变化和社会正义这些政治家们少有作为的议题上表明立场。

6 After the tech-celeration. In 2020 the pandemic accelerated the adoption of many technological behaviours, from video-conferencing and online shopping to remote working and distance learning. In 2021 the extent to which these changes will stick, or snap back, will become clearer.
六、“技术加速”过后。2020年,疫情加速了人们采用许多依赖技术的行为方式,从视频会议、网上购物,到居家工作和远程学习。这些变化会在多大程度上保留下来?还是会迅速逆转?这在2021年会变得更加清楚。

7 A less footloose world. Tourism will shrink and change shape, with more emphasis on domestic travel. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft manufacturers will struggle, as will universities that rely heavily on foreign students. Cultural exchange will suffer, too.
七、行动更不自由。旅游业将萎缩并转型——更多地专注国内游。航空公司、连锁酒店和飞机制造商的日子不好过,严重依赖外国生源的大学也一样。文化交流也会大受影响。

8 An opportunity on climate change. One silver lining amid the crisis is the chance to take action on climate change, as governments invest in green recovery plans to create jobs and cut emissions. How ambitious will countries’ reduction pledges be at the UN climate conference, delayed from 2020?
八、气候议题的机遇。危机中的一个光明面是有机会对气候变化采取行动,因为政府开始投资于绿色复苏计划以创造就业并减少排放。在从2020年延至2021年召开的联合国气候会议上,各国会做出多宏大的减排承诺?

9 The year of déjà vu. That is just one example of how the coming year may feel, in many respects, like a second take on 2020, as events including the Olympics, the Dubai Expo and many other political, sporting and commercial gatherings do their best to open a year later than planned. Not all will succeed.
九、似曾经历的一年。气候会议只是例子之一,显示将要到来的这一年在许多方面都可能像是2020年从头来过。包括奥运会、迪拜世博会和许多其他政治、体育和商业活动将尽力在原计划的一年后举行。并非都会实现。

10 A wake-up call for other risks. Academics and analysts, many of whom have warned of the danger of a pandemic for years, will try to exploit a narrow window of opportunity to get policymakers to take other neglected risks, such as antibiotic resistance and nuclear terrorism, more seriously. Wish them luck.
十、对其他风险敲响警钟。多年来,许多学者和分析师都警告过大流行病的危险。他们将努力把握疫情这个短暂的时机,敦促政策制定者更认真地对待其他被忽视的风险,例如抗生素耐药性和核恐怖主义。祝他们好运。

The coming year promises to be particularly unpredictable, given the interactions between the pandemic, an uneven economic recovery and fractious geopolitics. This annual will, we hope, help you improve your odds as you navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.
鉴于疫情、经济复苏不均衡以及剑拔弩张的地缘政治之间的相互作用,未来的一年势必会是尤其不可预测的一年。我们希望本期年刊将帮助你在迎接前方的风险和机遇时提高胜算。

And it’s not all doom and gloom. Lessons and chances for positive change have emerged from the crisis. So let the dice fly high—and, whatever cards 2021 may end up dealing you, may the odds be ever in your favour.
而前路不会是一片灰暗。经验教训和积极改变的机会也已从危机中浮现。所以,让骰子高高飞起吧——而无论2021年最终发给你什么牌,愿幸运女神永远眷顾你。