Three decades of research have led to a major rethink
30年的研究带来了重大反思【“反思经济学基本理论”系列之二】

最低工资有何危害? What harm do minimum wages do?-书迷号 shumihao.com

Thus, though it may sound counterintuitive for a higher wage to lead to more employment, it makes sense if what the legislation is doing is pushing a wage kept artificially low by monopsony back to where it would be in a market where supply and demand were matching each other freely. People who may not have bothered to look for a job at $10 an hour may be drawn into a job market offering $15 an hour. Push the minimum wage significantly beyond that point, though, and jobs will indeed be lost as companies find labour too expensive to afford.

因此,尽管“提高工资会增加就业”听上去可能有违直觉,但如果相关立法是把被垄断的买方人为压低的工资推回到在一个供求自由匹配的市场中应有的水平,那么它就讲得通了。那些本来可能懒得找一份10美元时薪工作的人可能会被15美元时薪重新吸引回就业市场。但是,如果把最低工资提高到大大超过这个节点,那么就真的会发生岗位流失,因为企业负担不起劳动力了。

Once the role of competition in the labour market is accepted, the debate on minimum wages becomes more nuanced and more empirical. Gathering data is not easy. Researchers must consider whether to track jobs or workers, and whether to study certain groups, such as teenagers or the unskilled, or broader sectors. And the job market is affected by more than just minimum-wage rules. Constructing reasonable counterfactuals is hard.

一旦人们接受了竞争在劳动力市场中的作用,关于最低工资的辩论就变得更加细致也更基于实证。收集数据并不容易。研究人员必须斟酌是去追踪岗位还是工人,是研究某些特定群体——比如青少年或非熟练工人——还是更广泛的行业和部门。而就业市场不仅仅受到最低工资规定的影响,要构建合理的反事实情境很难。

Specific north-west

独特西北区

Consider an example from Seattle. The city has been at the forefront of the “fight for $15” campaign that led to Mr Biden’s pledge, and its rapid wage rises have made it an attractive laboratory for economic studies, despite the fact, some grumble, that it is unrepresentative. A paper by Ekaterina Jardim and others at the University of Washington, published in 2017, found that minimum-wage increases in the city in 2015 and 2016 led to employers reducing hours in low-paid sectors. The average low-paid worker earned more per hour but, because they worked fewer hours, their monthly earnings dropped by $74—the equivalent of five hours’ pay.

来看看西雅图的例子。这座城市在“为15美元而战”运动(拜登的承诺由此而来)中一直走在最前沿,这里工资的快速上涨使它成为一个颇有吸引力的经济研究实验室,尽管一些人抱怨它缺乏代表性。华盛顿大学的叶卡捷琳娜·雅尔丁(Ekaterina Jardim)等人在2017年发表的一篇论文发现,2015年和2016年该市最低工资的上涨导致雇主缩短了低薪部门的工作时长。一名典型低薪工人的时薪更高了,但因为工时减少,他们的月收入下降了74美元——相当于五小时工资。

That paper used aggregate data on hours and earnings by sectors. In a paper published in 2018, the same authors used administrative data to track individual workers rather than looking at averages. This time they found that low-paid workers saw their weekly earnings increase by $8-12 a week. The majority of that gain, though, was taken by low earners with above-median experience levels and some of it from workers making up lost hours worked in Seattle with additional hours elsewhere in Washington state.

那篇论文使用了各行各业的工时和收入的汇总数据。在2018年发表的另一篇论文中,同一批作者用行政管理数据来追踪工人个体,而非查看平均值。这次,他们发现低薪工人的周收入增加了8到12美元。不过,这一增长的大头被经验水平在中位数以上的低收入者拿走了,其中有一部分是从在西雅图工作时长减少的工人那里转移而来,后者靠在华盛顿州的其他地方增加工时来弥补损失。

In 2019 a review commissioned by the British government of more than 50 recent empirical studies into wage floors found the effect on employment to be generally muted, even with relatively ambitious increases. Yet some studies did find higher impacts. Arindrajit Dube, the author of the review, warned that the evidence base is still developing. It is, for instance, too soon to opine on South Korea’s 25% increase in its minimum wage between 2016 and 2018.

英国政府在2019年委托撰写的一份综述回顾了近年有关最低工资的50多项实证研究,结果发现它们对就业的影响总体上很微弱,即便提升幅度较大时也一样。不过,其中有些研究确实发现了更大的影响。这份综述报告的作者阿林德拉吉特·杜贝(Arindrajit Dube)警告说,证据基础仍在发展中。比如,对于韩国在2016年至2018年间将最低工资提高了25%的影响,要发表意见还为时过早。

The effects of a wage floor can also be felt outside low-pay sectors. A preliminary study in 2019 of the impact of Germany’s minimum wage found it led to more reallocation of workers from smaller, lower-paying firms to larger, higher-paying ones. The same year an article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics found that the impact of minimum-wage laws on average earnings was amplified by small but important spillover effects higher up the earnings ladder. Employers tend to want to maintain some sort of wage differential for staff with more responsibility. So if the minimum wage boosts the pay of fast-food workers, then restaurants may also need to raise the pay of fast-food supervisors.

在低薪工种之外也能感受到最低工资的影响。2019年对德国最低工资制度影响的一项初步研究发现,它导致更多工人从较小的、薪资更低的公司转移到较大的、薪资较高的公司。同年发表于《经济学季刊》(Quarterly Journal of Economics)的一篇文章发现,最低工资立法在收入阶梯的更高处产生了虽小却重要的溢出效应,扩大了这类法律对平均收入的影响。雇主倾向于为那些肩负更多责任的员工维持某种工资差异。因此,如果最低工资提高了快餐工人的工资,那么餐馆可能也需要提高快餐主管的工资。

Who pays for the minimum wage? In theory a higher cost base could be passed on to consumers through higher prices, or absorbed by employers through lower profit margins. In reality the answer varies by market. In competitive sectors, such as fast food, research has found that a 10% increase in the wage floor pushes up burger prices by just 0.9%. In 2019 a study of supermarkets in Seattle found no impact on grocery prices from big increases.

谁为最低工资买单?从理论上讲,更高的成本基数可以通过更高的产品价格转嫁给消费者,或通过更低的利润率由雇主吸收。在现实中,答案因市场而异。在快餐业等竞争性行业中,研究发现最低工资提高10%仅仅使汉堡价格上涨了0.9%。2019年对西雅图超市的调查没有发现最低工资大幅上涨影响食品杂货价格。

Economists no longer think higher minimum wages are always bad. But that is not the same as saying they are always good. In 2018 a paper by Isaac Sorkin and others cautioned policymakers to take a longer-term view, rather than worry about short-term unemployment. Its authors found that if firms perceived a higher wage floor to be permanent and unlikely to be eroded by inflation, it could encourage them to automate more and decrease employment growth in the future. The idea that a minimum wage can sometimes lead to higher rather than lower employment does not mean it always will. When pushing up the floor, policymakers need to ensure they do not hit the ceiling. ■

经济学家不再认为提高最低工资总是不好的。但这并不等同于说它们永远是好的。艾萨克·索尔金(Isaac Sorkin)等人在2018年发表的一篇论文告诫政策制定者,相比担心短期失业率,他们需要看得更远些。作者发现,如果企业认为更高的最低工资会永久持续却不大可能被通胀抵销,那么这可能会促使它们扩大自动化而缩减劳动力增长。最低工资有时会增加而非减少就业,但并不意味着永远如此。在抬高这块地板时,政策制定者需要确保自己不会触到天花板。