Thanks to covid-19 more people than ever are banking and paying online. The bonanza will reshape finance

数字巨浪 The digital surge-书迷号

IN 2012 DAVID VéLEZ tried to open a bank account in Brazil. “It was like going to prison,” he says. He was ordered to leave his belongings in a locker before walking through bulletproof doors. After waiting an hour, he faced a barrage of questions from a hostile manager. It took five months for him to be offered a bare-bones account costing him hundreds of dollars a year and a credit card charging an annualised interest rate of 400%. The next year, in the hope of eroding Brazil’s crusty banking oligopoly, he founded Nubank, a digital lender. By early 2020 the bank was valued at $10bn.
二〇一二年,大卫·贝莱斯(David Vélez)想在巴西开个银行账户。“就像进监狱一样。”他说。工作人员要求他在通过防弹门之前把随身物品放进储物柜。等了一个小时后,一名凶巴巴的经理连珠炮似地向他提了一堆问题。他花了五个月的时间才获得一个年费好几百美元的最基本账户和一张年化利率为400%的信用卡。第二年,他创建了数字银行Nubank,希望借此削弱巴西银行业顽固的寡头垄断。2020年初,这家银行的估值达到了100亿美元。

Then the pandemic came—and business really took off. This year alone the number of accounts at Nubank has risen by 50%, taking the total to 30m. In June it partnered with WhatsApp, which has 120m users in Brazil, to offer payments through the messaging service. In September it bought Easynvest, a digital broker, and launched operations in Colombia. In November Brazil will implement Open Banking, a reform that will give fintechs access to data held by banks, fund managers and insurers. All this, says Mr Vélez, is just the beginning of the digital revolution: “it is only the first second of the first half of the game.”

Just as a digital surge brought on by the pandemic is speeding up a transformation in retail and e-commerce, finance too is being reshaped. The shift from physical to digital payments this year has been dramatic. Pundits canvassed by The Economist reckon that the share of cashless transactions worldwide has risen to levels they had expected it to reach in two to five years’ time. In America mobile-banking traffic rose by 85% and online-banking registrations by 200% in the month of April.

Some firms will cash in on the digital rush, while others will be left behind. Capital markets think a new era is dawning: conventional banks now account for only 72% of the total market value of the global banking and payments industry, down from 81% at the start of the year and 96% a decade ago (see chart 1). Fintech firms such as Ant Group and PayPal make up 11%: their market value has almost doubled this year to nearly $900bn. Conventional non-bank payments firms such as Visa are booming, too, and make up the other 17% of the industry total.

Digitisation may spell the end of the dinosaurs in some industries, such as entertainment or retail. But in finance they seem likely to live on. Banks are well entrenched, albeit to different degrees in different places. Regulators, the gods of their ecosystem, are unwilling to let them die off. So the new and old will coexist, with the precise features of the hybrid system varying from place to place.

The acceleration in digitisation is most visible in payments. Although the crisis has led to an increase in physical cash held by the public, its pace of circulation has fallen, suggesting people are hoarding rather than spending banknotes. Card payments, by contrast, have kept growing. That is partly thanks to the boom in online shopping, which has itself leapt forward by several years. But it also reflects the efforts of brick-and-mortar shops to reach customers online. In the spring Stripe, a firm that powers payments, helped the centuries-old farmers’ market in Paris set up virtual checkouts in place of physical ones, says John Collison, its president. Food-order volumes processed by Marqeta, a payments firm that works with many of America’s restaurant-delivery firms, tripled between March and mid-April.
数字化的加速在支付领域最为明显。尽管新冠危机让民众持有的现金增加了,但它的流通速度却下降了,这表明人们都把现金收着,不花出去。与之相比,银行卡支付在持续增长。这在一定程度上要归功于几年前就已发展迅猛的网购的激增。但它同时也反映了实体店在努力扩展线上顾客。支付服务公司Stripe的总裁约翰·科里森(John Collison)表示,今年春天,公司帮助巴黎一个几百年历史的农贸市场建立了虚拟收银台,取代了实体收银台。3月到4月中旬,与许多美国送餐公司合作的支付公司Marqeta处理的餐饮订单量增加了两倍。

Shops have reopened, but people are sticking to plastic. Governments in 31 countries have helped by raising limits on contactless payments (and card firms are lobbying for even higher ceilings). Those at Visa and Mastercard, two card networks that account for 94% of transactions processed outside of China, surged by over 40% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. Square, which helps small businesses accept credit-card payments, saw its share of fully cashless clients in America jump from 5% in February to 23% in April; it has since stabilised at 14%. In Britain the share now stands at 37% (see chart 3).

All change

The shift goes beyond cards. Hiroki Takeuchi of GoCardless, which helps companies collect payments from bank accounts, says many membership businesses like gyms took the opportunity of shutdowns to upgrade from cash registers to direct debits. Consumers are using peer-to-peer (P2P) services to send money to relatives or buy fitness classes online. Payments processed in America by Venmo, a P2P firm, grew by 50% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Outside the West, mobile wallets, with which you can pay after loading money on to your phone, were becoming commonplace even before the pandemic. The virus has given them a leg up. A third of Singapore’s 18,000 street hawkers let consumers pay by scanning a QR code in July, a boost of over 50% in just two months. Many governments in Africa declared these wallets essential services and banned transfer fees. Amounts held in M-PESA, a mobile-money service ubiquitous in Kenya, rose by a fifth in the month of May alone.

Digitisation is also racing ahead in other areas of finance. As millions of households received stimulus cheques and furlough payments, many took to betting on stocks from their sofas using zero-fee e-brokers. Keith Denerstein of TD Ameritrade, one such broker, says customers worldwide have opened 50% more accounts in 2020 than in its best full year. Meanwhile insurers that relied on agents to sell policies have learnt to do without. Sachin Shah, who runs the Asian unit of Manulife, says 97% of its products can now be bought online.
数字化还在金融的其他领域快速发展。在千百万家庭收到经济刺激支票和停职补贴后,很多人开始躺在沙发上通过免佣金的电子经纪商押注股票。TD Ameritrade就是这样一家经纪商,该公司的基思·德纳斯坦(Keith Denerstein)表示,2020年公司全球客户开设的账户比业绩最好的年份的一整年还要多50%。与此同时,过去依赖代理人销售保单的保险公司也学会了绕过他们。宏利保险(Manulife)亚洲区的负责人萨钦·沙阿(Sachin Shah)表示,现在公司97%的产品都可以在网上购买。

Banking—the core of retail finance—has not been immune to change. Western lenders report surging connections to their apps and digital sales. Adoption is even faster in emerging markets, reflecting a lower starting point. José Antonio Álvarez, chief executive of Santander, a Spanish banking group that spans three continents, says the use of its digital channels rose by 20% in Europe, 30% in South America and 50% in Mexico in the first half of the year, compared with the first half of 2019.
作为零售金融核心的银行业也未能免于改变。西方多家银行都报告自己的应用的注册数和数字销售额激增。在新兴市场,人们接纳的速度还要更快,反映出更低的起点。业务横跨三大洲的西班牙银行集团桑坦德银行(Santander)的总裁何塞·安东尼奥·阿尔瓦雷斯(José Antonio Álvarez)表示,今年上半年,该银行数字渠道的业务量在欧洲、南美洲和墨西哥分别比2019年同期增长了20%、30%和50%。

Digital finance, already a force for inclusion, has brought yet more people into the banking system in recent months. In April DBS, Singapore’s biggest lender, opened 40,000 accounts for migrants in a weekend so that they could send money home digitally. Brazil’s government, which has extended aid to 60m people, is increasingly using the mobile route to reach citizens in the Amazon. Joshua Oigara, the boss of KCB, Kenya’s largest bank, says the number of customers using its app has doubled since covid-19 struck. These moved 35bn shillings ($329m) from their mobile wallets to bank accounts in June—six times more than in January.
本就已扩大了金融覆盖人群的数字金融近几个月来又把更多人纳入了银行系统。新加坡最大的银行星展银行(DBS)在4月的一个周末就为客工开设了四万个账户,让他们可以通过数字方式向家里汇款。已向六千万人提供了援助的巴西政府现在正越来越多地使用移动支付的方式继续向亚马逊地区的居民提供援助。肯尼亚最大的银行肯尼亚商业银行(KCB)的行长约书亚·沃加拉(Joshua Oigara)表示,自新冠肺炎爆发以来,它的应用的用户数翻了一番。6月,这些用户将350亿先令(3.29亿美元)从移动钱包转移到了银行账户,比1月时多六倍。

These changes in behaviour seem likely to stick. Many customers were unfamiliar with the technology before the pandemic—and surveys suggest they like it. In April nearly a fifth of American adults used digital payments for the first time, reckons Forrester, a research firm. Since February Nubank has gained 30,000 users over the age of 60 every month. In a global survey Bain, a consultancy, found that 95% of consumers plan to use digital banking post-pandemic. And banks, which had already been planning to shrink their physical footprint, are closing branches more quickly than they had envisaged. Brazilian lenders have shut down 1,500 this year, 7% of the total stock. Those in Europe are planning to slash 2,500 branches. Banks will strive to keep the everyday business online, with branches that stay open often being revamped to provide “high-value” services such as advice, says Allison Beer of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest lender.
这些行为上的变化似乎会成为常态。疫情爆发前很多客户并不熟悉数字支付技术,而调查显示他们喜欢这种方式。据研究公司Forrester估计,4月,近五分之一的美国成年人首次使用了数字支付。自2月以来,Nubank每月新增三万名60岁以上用户。咨询公司贝恩的一项全球调查发现,95%的消费者计划在疫情之后使用数字银行业务。而早就在计划缩减网点的银行现在正以比自己预想更快的速度关闭分支机构。巴西的银行今年关闭了1500家分行,占其总数的7%。欧洲的银行正计划削减2500家分行。美国最大的银行摩根大通的艾莉森·比尔(Allison Beer)表示,银行将努力在线上维持日常业务,而那些继续线下营业的分行往往会转型以提供咨询等“高价值”服务。

The law of the bundle

In the middle of the digital rush, a new business model is emerging—and new entrants are being drawn in. Banks, e-commerce sites, fintechs, social networks, taxi apps and telecoms firms are all vying to become “platforms”—marketplaces through which users can buy a range of financial products made in-house or by third parties. “Everybody is trying to become the home page,” says Tara Reeves of Omers Ventures, the venture-capital arm of Canada’s municipal-pension fund. Grab, a ride-hailing app in Singapore that has grown into the country’s most popular mobile wallet, has over 60 tie-ups with banks, insurers and other financial firms. Reuben Lai, who runs its finance arm, says it wants “to be a one-stop platform” that fulfils South-East Asians’ financial needs.
在这场数字化洪流中,一种新的商业模式正在兴起,新进入者也正被吸引进来。银行、电子商务网站、金融科技公司、社交网络、网约车应用以及电信公司都在争相成为“平台”——用户可以从这里购买它们自己或第三方开发的一系列金融产品。“人人都想成为主页。”加拿大市级养老基金Omers的风险投资部门Omers Ventures的塔拉·里夫斯(Tara Reeves)说。新加坡的网约车应用Grab已发展成该国用户最多的移动钱包,与60多家银行、保险公司以及其他金融机构建立了合作。该公司金融部门的负责人鲁本·赖(Reuben Lai)表示,它希望“成为一站式平台”,满足东南亚人的各种金融需求。

Investors reckon that “embedded finance”—the integration of credit, insurance and investment into non-financial apps or websites—could in time become as valuable as payment services are today. Both banks and fintechs are therefore racing to integrate the services they offer. In September Yandex, Russia’s leading web-search and ride-hailing app, said it would buy the country’s largest digital bank. A week later Sberbank, Russia’s top lender, dropped “bank” from its name in order to rebrand itself as a tech firm dabbling in food delivery and telemedicine. Peter Ndegwa, who runs Safaricom, a Kenyan telecoms firm and M-PESA’s main owner, wants the service to become a “lifestyle brand” offering overdrafts, loans, wealth management and insurance.
投资者认为,“嵌入式金融”——把信贷、保险和投资整合到非金融应用或网站中——迟早会像今天的支付服务一样有价值。银行和金融科技公司为此都在竞相整合自己提供的服务。9月,俄罗斯的网页搜索和网约车主导应用Yandex表示将收购该国最大的数字银行。一周后,俄罗斯最大的银行联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)去掉了名字中的 “银行”一词,希望把自己重塑为一家涉足外卖和远程医疗的科技公司。控股M-PESA的肯尼亚电信公司Safaricom的老板彼得·恩代格瓦(Peter Ndegwa)想把M-PESA发展成一个提供透支、贷款、理财和保险的 “生活方式品牌”。

The main attraction of the new model is money. As rising competition and, in the rich world, low and falling interest rates reduce lending margins, banks need to diversify. Tech-based challengers, for their part, want to increase the stickiness of their apps so they can sell more of their core products, or take a cut of the financial wares they distribute for others. As physical branches become irrelevant, finance is exposed to the same network economics that have upended other sectors. Huw van Steenis of UBS, a bank, thinks the pandemic is accelerating a “winner-takes-most” dynamic, where popular platforms attract exponentially more traffic.
这种新模式的主要吸引力是钱。竞争加剧和富裕国家不断走低的利率导致贷款利润下降,银行因而需要多样化经营。而对立足科技的银行挑战者来说,它们希望增加自家应用的黏性,从而可以销售更多的核心产品,或者从为他人分销的金融产品中分得一杯羹。随着实体分支变得不再重要,金融业也和其他行业一样面临着被网络经济颠覆的命运。瑞银集团(UBS)的休·范斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)认为,新冠疫情正在加快“赢家吃最多”的态势,受欢迎的平台吸引的流量会呈指数级增长。

Much of the gains could come from the ability to merge and exploit data long siloed within different financial services. Armed with a full picture of users’ behaviour, firms hope to use algorithms that spit out tips on, say, how to save for a dream house. That will make the platforms even stickier and allow them, in turn, to recommend yet more products. Backbase, a fintech that designs digital-banking software for incumbents, is also working on such wizardry. “The more people share their daily lives with you, the more you can give them these additional benefits,” says Jouk Pleiter, its boss.
新模式的不少收益可能来自把长期孤立存在于各类金融服务中的数据整合和利用起来的能力。有了对用户行为的全面了解,企业希望能够利用算法给出一些建议,比如如何存钱买一套梦想中的房子。这又会进一步增加平台的黏性,继而也能让它们推荐更多的产品。为传统银行设计数字银行业务软件的金融科技公司Backbase也在追求这样的神奇伟业。“人们和你分享的日常生活越多,你能给他们的这些额外好处就越多。”其老板约科·普莱特(Jouk Pleiter)说。

Many zeros, and many ones

Though it has obliterated incumbents in other industries, Big Tech has contented itself with skirting around the margins of finance. Apple has launched a credit card with Goldman Sachs, and a payment tool. Facebook’s payments efforts have made little headway. The number of American e-commerce sites that use Amazon’s checkout button is rising only slowly, says Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson, a research firm. Google has teamed up with banks to offer current and saving accounts; in India, where its payment app is dominant, it doles out instant loans to shoppers. But Diana Layfield, a payments executive at Google, is adamant that it does not want to become “a grand unifying platform”. (That may be because it is eyeing a juicier market. The financial industry, at first slow to move data to the cloud, is becoming keener to do so. That will most benefit: Alibaba, Ant’s former parent group; Amazon; Google; and Microsoft.)
在其他行业,科技巨头已经断了许多老企业的活路,但在金融业里它们却满足于在边缘游走。苹果与高盛合作推出了一款信用卡,还推出了自己的支付工具。Facebook在支付上的努力无甚进展。研究公司MoffettNathanson的丽莎·埃利斯(Lisa Ellis)表示,使用亚马逊支付按钮的美国电子商务网站的数量增长缓慢。谷歌已与多家银行合作提供活期存款和储蓄账户;在印度,谷歌的支付应用一家独大,可向购物者发放即时贷款。但谷歌支付部门的高管黛安娜·莱菲尔德(Diana Layfield)坚称谷歌不想成为“一体化的大平台”。(这可能是因为它盯上了一个更有利可图的市场。金融业最初迟迟不愿把数据转移到云端,现在越来越热衷于此。这一块最大的受益者将是蚂蚁集团的前母公司阿里巴巴、亚马逊、谷歌和微软。)

Where does all this leave banks? Many fintechs, with their shinier apps and better risk analytics, certainly have an edge over them. But these firms are not trying to usurp lenders. This is because banking is made of two parts, says Miklós Dietz of McKinsey, a consultancy. “Core banking”—heavily regulated, capital-intensive activities such as running a balance-sheet—makes $3trn in revenue worldwide, and returns on equity (ROE) of 5-6%. By contrast, freer-wheeling lines of business, such as payments or product distribution, yield $2.5trn in sales but ROEs of 20%. Fintechs are after the tasty bits. But for this, they need banks to stay alive.
这一切会给银行造成什么后果呢?许多金融科技公司有着更酷炫的应用和更胜一筹的风险分析,无疑比银行更有优势。但这些公司并不想篡夺银行的地位。咨询公司麦肯锡的米克洛什·迪茨(Miklós Dietz)表示,这是因为银行业务由两部分组成。“银行核心业务”是受严格监管的资本密集型活动,比如管理资产负债表,在全球范围内创造了3万亿美元的收入,股本回报率(ROE)为5%至6%。相比而言,支付或产品分销等监管相对宽松的业务的销售额为2.5万亿美元,ROE却高达20%。金融科技公司瞄准的是后者这块肥肉。然而要得偿所愿,它们需要银行活下去。

To see how coexistence might work, look to China. The duopoly of Tencent and Ant use powerful algorithms to price and distribute a fast-growing portion of the loans made to consumers and small firms in the country. Yet the products they sell are held on banks’ balance-sheets. Despite the hefty cut they take—gobbling up a big chunk of the lenders’ profit—banks still accept the deal, because they crave access.

But coexistence will take varied forms across the world. Some banks may be better suited to the new world of tech than others, itself a function of the state of banks today. Dirk Vater of Bain sees a strong link between a bank’s digital performance and how badly it was hit by the financial crisis of 2007-09. European banks, burdened by dud loans and low interest rates, spent the 2010s cutting costs rather than investing in transformation. Their apps can do little. By contrast the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, based in a country unscathed by the financial crisis, has built an app that has won plaudits for offering Netflix-like personalised service. It notifies users when bills are due and advises them on their tax returns. Piyush Gupta, DBS’s boss, says it spent the past few months plugging “last-mile” gaps so that complex products, such as mortgages, can be sold online.
但世界各地的共存方式会形态各异。一些银行可能比另一些更适合这个科技新世界,而这个新世界本身又取决于银行的现状。贝恩公司的德克·法特(Dirk Vater)发现,一家银行的数字业务的表现与它在2007至2009年金融危机中受冲击的程度具有强关联性。受不良贷款和低利率的影响,过去十年里欧洲银行都在想法设法削减成本,而不是把资金投入到转型上。它们的应用乏善可陈。相比之下,总部位于避过金融危机重创的澳大利亚的澳洲联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)开发的一款应用提供类似奈飞(Netflix)的个性化服务,赢得了赞誉。它会在账单快到期时通知用户,并向用户提供纳税申报方面的建议。星展银行的老板皮尤什·古普塔(Piyush Gupta)表示,过去几个月该行一直在填补“最后一英里”的缺口,以实现在网上销售抵押贷款等复杂产品。

Cheques and balances

Regulation will also determine how much tech firms can prise away from the banks. China long let them roam free (though it has recently clawed back some of that liberty to protect the banks). At the other extreme, America has shielded banks and credit-card firms the most, by being slow to build fast-payment pipes and making it hard to gain digital-banking licences. It has left it to the market to decide when data should be shared, and at what price. Europe and many emerging markets are somewhere in the middle. These have tried to instil competition by allowing data to flow. Some version of Open Banking will soon be in force in 51 countries, ranging from Malaysia to Mexico.

Bring these initial conditions together, and you start to see why certain financial systems are where they are today, and where they might end up. America is at stage zero. Customers are locked into sticky credit-card schemes funded by extortionate levies on merchants. Tech firms must rely on creaky financial plumbing run by well-protected incumbent banks.

At the next stage, banks would still run the infrastructure, but payments and other non-core tasks would be open to new entrants. European fintechs, for example, can initiate transfers but they still move money between bank accounts. In Sweden they originate 60% of consumer loans.

At stage two, payments would routinely cut out the incumbents—like, for instance, the flows between Africa’s mobile wallets, which do not transit through banks. But most other financial services would still involve them. Stage three is the realm of “super-apps” like Grab and Gojek in South-East Asia, which started as ride-hailing services, or Mercado Pago, the financial arm of MercadoLibre, Latin America’s largest e-commerce site. These want to become financial supermarkets that offer a range of products mostly manufactured by others. The most advanced incarnations of these are the super-apps in China.
在第二阶段,支付通常会绕过传统银行。比如,像非洲的移动钱包之间的资金流动就不通过银行中转。但大多数其他的金融服务仍会有银行的参与。第三阶段则是“超级应用”的天下,比如东南亚以网约车服务起家的Grab和Gojek,或者拉丁美洲最大的电子商务网站MercadoLibre的金融部门Mercado Pago。它们希望成为提供多种产品的金融超市,这些产品大多由其他公司开发。其中最先进的典型是中国的超级应用。

For as long as regulators are determined to keep banks alive, stage four, where non-banks dominate both the production and distribution of financial services, will probably never come to be. With so many countries so far off the frontier, though, this hardly rules out dramatic change over the years ahead. ■