The Fed’s former chairwoman will lead the Treasury. What does she stand for?
前美联储主席将出任美国财政部长。她代表什么?

众口可调 Something for everyone-书迷号 shumihao.com

IN THE FIRST instalment of the “Harry Potter” series, the protagonist stumbles across the Mirror of Erised. Anyone who looks into the mirror sees the “deepest, most desperate desire” of their hearts reflected back at them. There is a touch of Erised about President-elect Joe Biden’s decision to nominate Janet Yellen as America’s next treasury secretary, announced on November 30th. No economist is more qualified than Ms Yellen, a former head of the Federal Reserve and a respected academic, for the job. Perhaps more important, however, for what is a political role as much as an economic one, people from the progressive left to the conservative right can see something to like in her.
在《哈利·波特》系列小说的第一部中,主角偶然发现了“厄里斯魔镜”。照这面镜子的人会从中看到自己内心“最深切、最强烈的渴望”。当选总统拜登11月30日宣布提名珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)出任美国下一任财政部长,这里头就颇有点厄里斯魔镜的味道。耶伦是美联储前主席,也是备受尊敬的学者,可谓是最胜任这个职位的经济学家。但或许更重要的是,对于财政部长这个政治重要性不亚于其经济角色的职位,无论是进步左派还是保守右派都能在耶伦身上看到某些称心之处。

In today’s political configuration, that matters. Mr Biden must tame a split in the Democratic Party between run-of-the-mill centrists and tear-it-down millennial socialists. And before she becomes treasury secretary, Ms Yellen must be confirmed by the Senate, which Republicans currently control. That hurdle ruled out candidates such as Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Massachusetts whom many Republicans would never confirm because she is seen as too hostile to free markets and the financial industry.
这在今天的政治格局中非常重要。拜登必须克服民主党内因循守旧的中间派和主张打破旧秩序的千禧一代社会主义者之间的分歧。而在耶伦成为财政部长之前,对她的提名必须在目前由共和党控制的参议院通过。这道障碍已经将一些候选人排除在外,比如来自马萨诸塞州的联邦参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)。许多共和党人认为她过于敌视自由市场和金融业,因而绝不可能通过对她的任命。

In the days before the announcement Washington insiders believed the race was between Ms Yellen and Lael Brainard, a governor of the Fed. Some favoured Ms Brainard on the grounds that she had more expertise in trade economics, others because she is younger than Ms Yellen, and would therefore do a better job of balancing an elderly president. Left-leaning Democrats were particularly taken with Ms Brainard’s monetary doveishness.
提名公布之前,华盛顿知情人士认为这应该是耶伦和美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)之间的争夺。一些倾向布雷纳德的人认为她在贸易经济学方面更专业。也有人觉得她比耶伦年轻,更能平衡总统的高龄。左翼民主党人尤其喜欢布雷纳德温和的货币政策主张。

Yet Ms Yellen has many advantages of her own. She is an accomplished economist, originally specialising in labour economics, and is the president of the American Economic Association, the field’s pre-eminent learned society. (There are also few better-liked people in the profession; wonks turn up their collars in homage to one of Ms Yellen’s sartorial quirks.) She was a highly competent chairwoman of the Fed between 2014 and 2018, communicating the central bank’s intentions clearly in advance so as not to take investors by surprise. Her experience at the Fed may prove useful given that the central bank and the Treasury must continue to cooperate to help the economic recovery along. Under Ms Yellen there would be little chance of the sort of spat that has developed over the Fed’s lending schemes.
但耶伦也有诸多优势。研究劳动力经济学出身的她是一位杰出的经济学家,还是顶尖经济学学术团体美国经济学会(American Economic Association)的现任主席。(业内也少有人像她那样深受拥戴;一众政策专家曾模仿耶伦的着装习惯立起领子向她致敬。)她在2014年至2018年担任美联储主席时表现极为出色,总能在美联储采取行动前清晰传达其意图,不致让投资者措手不及。她在美联储的经验可能派上用场,毕竟美联储和财政部必须继续合作以推动经济复苏。在耶伦的领导下,不大可能再发生围绕美联储的贷款计划的那种争吵。

The genius of choosing Ms Yellen lies in the fact that people of all political persuasions can find some reason to cheer her appointment. That means she will almost certainly be confirmed by the Senate. Take monetary policy. Hawks point out that during Ms Yellen’s tenure the Fed raised rates from near zero to 1.25-1.5%. Doves counter that hawks were over-represented on the rate-setting panel at the time, and that Ms Yellen in fact did a good job of keeping them in check.
选择耶伦的妙处在于,所有政治派别的人都可以找到某种理由支持对她的任命。这意味着她几乎肯定会获得参议院通过。以货币政策为例。鹰派人士指出,耶伦任美联储主席期间,利率从接近零提高至1.25%到1.5%。鸽派反驳说,当时设定利率的货币政策委员会中鹰派过多,而实际上耶伦在抑制他们的影响力方面做得很不错。

It is a similar story on fiscal policy. Shortly before Donald Trump became president, Ms Yellen argued that “fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment”. She is on the board of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an organisation that spends a lot of time warning people about the dangers of high public debt. Yet in the pandemic Ms Yellen has urged “extraordinary fiscal support”. In June she co-signed a letter saying “Congress must pass another economic recovery package.”
在财政政策方面也一样。特朗普出任总统前不久,耶伦认为“用财政政策刺激经济恢复充分就业的需要并不明显”。她是“负责任的联邦预算委员会”(Responsible Federal Budget)的成员,该委员会大力提醒人们警惕高公共债务的风险。但在新冠疫情中,耶伦敦促政府推出“特别财政支持”。今年6月,她参与联署了一封信,指出“国会必须通过另一项经济复苏方案” 。

Passing another stimulus bill may be her first big task. Republicans and Democrats have been unable to agree on a replacement to the bill passed in the spring, with particular disagreement on the size of the eventual package, even as it is now clear that America’s economic recovery is slowing. It is a lot to expect that the sheer force of one person could help break the deadlock, not least because Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate for a while yet. But if anyone can do it, it may be Ms Yellen. ■
通过另一项刺激方案可能是耶伦的第一大任务。美国经济的复苏步伐目前已明显放缓,两党却一直无法就推出新方案替换今年春季通过的方案达成共识,尤其是在最终刺激方案的规模上存在分歧。要让谁凭一己之力打破僵局未免要求太高了,尤其是看起来共和党短期内仍将控制参议院。但如果有谁真能做到,那也许非耶伦莫属。