FlyTitle: Geopolitics

How governments are erecting borders in the mirror world

政府如何在镜像世界中设立边境墙【专题报道《数据经济》系列之五】

经济学人双语版-虚拟民族主义 Virtual nationalism

SOMEWHERE DEEP in the bowels of Microsoft’s campus in Redmond near Seattle, a jumble of more than 100 buildings, there is a special kind of room. The size of a school gym, its walls are covered with big screens. One shows the “health” of the firm’s cloud-computing services, collectively called Azure. Another displays people’s “sentiment” about the system, as expressed on social media. A third one, a large map of the world, tells visitors how many “denial-of-service” (DOS) attacks, which amount to flooding a customer’s online presence with bits to shut it down, are currently being dealt with. The counters on this Thursday morning in early December show 80 in Asia, 171 in Europe and 425 in the Americas.

在西雅图附近的雷德蒙德,由杂乱的一百多栋建筑构成的微软园区的深处有一间特殊的房间。它有一座学校体育馆那么大,墙壁上满是大屏幕。其中一个屏幕上显示了该公司统称为Azure的云计算服务的“健康状况”。另一个显示了人们在社交媒体上表达的对该系统的“情感”。第三个是一张巨大的世界地图,告诉访客当前正在处理多少次“拒绝服务”(DOS)攻击,这种攻击相当于用比特来淹没客户的线上业务使其无法工作。在12月初的这个星期四的早上,计数器显示亚洲有80个,欧洲有171个,美洲有425个。

It would be fair to assume that the room is a NOC, a “network operations centre”, to manage Azure. But nothing gets controlled here; that happens elsewhere. Instead, the room, called the Cloud Collaboration Centre (CCC), serves two other purposes. One is, in the words of Anja Ziegler, who manages the location, to “put a face on the cloud”—giving customers an idea what Azure and the mirror worlds it powers are about. But more important, the room serves as a place for Microsoft employees to discuss how to reshape the cloud in response to legal changes in the data economy.

我们可以合理假想这个房间是用来管理Azure的NOC(“网络运营中心”)。但这里没有任何东西受到控制——那是在其他地方做的。这个名为“云协作中心”(CCC)的房间实则有另外两个目的。用这里的主管安雅·齐格勒(Anja Ziegler)的话来说,一个目的是“给云一张脸”,让客户知道Azure以及它所支持的镜像世界是做什么的。但更重要的是,这个房间是微软员工讨论如何根据数据经济中的法律变化重塑云的地方。

One of the first projects to be tackled in the CCC was how to make Azure compatible with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the EU’s tough privacy law that went into effect in 2018. The room has only become busier since: privacy and other data-related legislation is multiplying around the world. Sometimes virtual borders need to be erected, so that data do not leave or enter a certain country. Or a new data centre needs to be built to give the digital stuff a local home. If this trend holds, Microsoft may soon have to upgrade the CCC’s world map—to show the planet’s many different data zones, rather than just DOS attacks.

CCC中要处理的首批项目之一是如何使Azure符合《通用数据保护条例》(GDPR),这是欧盟于2018年生效的严格的隐私法。自此以后,这个房间变得越来越繁忙:隐私法和其他数据相关法规在全世界四处开花。有时需要建立虚拟边境墙,以使数据不会离开或进入某个国家。有时需要建立一个新的数据中心,让数字内容有一个本地的家。如果这种趋势持续下去,微软可能很快就必须升级CCC的世界地图了——让它显示地球上许多不同的数据区域,而不仅仅是DOS攻击。

The CCC is thus a place where another tension of the data economy is playing out. Data were supposed to float freely around the world to where they are most efficiently crunched. But flows are increasingly blocked by governments which seek to protect their country’s people, sovereignty and economy. And these first rustlings of digital protectionism, predicts Ian Hogarth, a noted British entrepreneur and writer, could turn into fully fledged “AI nationalism”, as countries go beyond just defending their data assets and try to build a data economy of their own.

因此,数据经济的另一种矛盾也在CCC蔓延。数据本应自由地在世界各地漂流以求被最高效地处理。但是,寻求保护本国公民、主权和经济的政府正日益阻止这种流动。著名的英国企业家和作家伊恩·霍加斯(Ian Hogarth)预测,数字保护主义的这些最初的摩擦可能会演变成全面的“人工智能民族主义”,因为各国会从捍卫自己的数据资产发展为试图建立自己的数据经济。

Just as with the internet itself, there were not supposed to be any trade-offs in the cloud. The “cosmopolitan ideal” was that the free flow of data would make the world if not a better place, at least a more efficient one, observes Andrew Woods of the University of Arizona, who is writing a book about data sovereignty. It would allow digital stuff to end up in data centres located in places near many users, with lots of connectivity and where land and energy are cheap and the air cool and dry. (Cloud data centres can be several football fields large and consume huge amounts of energy, about half of which is used for cooling.)

就像互联网本身一样,在云中本不该有任何权衡妥协。亚利桑那大学的安德鲁·伍兹(Andrew Woods)正在撰写一本关于数字主权的书。他认为“国际理想”是数据的自由流通哪怕不能使世界变得更美好,至少也会让它更高效。它会让数字内容最终抵达设在靠近大量用户、连通性强、土地和能源便宜、空气凉爽干燥的地点的数据中心。(云数据中心可以有几个足球场那么大,并且消耗大量能源,其中大约一半用于冷却。)

Whose cosmopolitan ideal?

谁的国际理想?

In practice this has meant that the biggest clouds have risen over America, which so far has set the rules of the data economy. It not only boasts the biggest and most innovative tech companies, but plenty of potential customers, fibre-optic cables, cheap power and land to build cavernous data centres. To get an impression of the concentration of computing power in America, one need only drive a few hours west of Microsoft’s campus to Quincy, Washington, a town with a population of not even 8,000. This is home to two dozen large data centres, many operated by Microsoft.

在现实中,这意味着最大的云已经在美国上空冉冉升起,设定了到目前为止的数据经济的规则。它不仅拥有规模最大、最具创新性的科技公司,而且拥有大量潜在客户、光缆、廉价电力和土地来建造巨穴般庞大的数据中心。要想对美国计算能力的集中度有个概念,只需从微软园区往西驱车几个小时,到达华盛顿的昆西,一个不足8000人的城市。这里是20多个大型数据中心的所在地,其中许多由微软运营。

As long as computing clouds were small, this uneven distribution did not matter much. But, starting with the intelligence leaks by the American security expert Edward Snowden in 2013 which revealed widespread snooping by America’s spy agencies, governments have begun to understand the importance of this global infrastructure—and, by extension, the data economy. Citizens’ privacy is not the only worry. Data may also reveal things about a country’s defences. If digital evidence is stored abroad, law enforcement might be inhibited. Data should be kept close, some governments think, lest other countries benefit from them.

只要计算云的规模小,这种分布不均就不太要紧。但是,自从美国安全专家爱德华·斯诺登在2013年泄露情报,揭露了美国间谍机构的广泛监视之后,各国政府就开始理解这种全球基础设施的重要性——并由此扩展到数据经济的重要性。公民隐私并不是唯一的担忧。数据还可能揭示有关一国国防的信息。如果数字证据存储在国外,执法可能会受到限制。一些政府认为,数据应保管在本国,以免其他国家从中受益。

As a result, in recent years virtual borders have been going up in the digital cloud. The GDPR allows personal data to leave the EU only if firms have appropriate safeguards in place or if the destination country has “an adequate level of protection”. India blocks payment information from leaving the country and may soon require that certain types of personal data never leave the country. Russia requires that data be processed and stored on servers within its territory. China blocks most international data flows. And the EU is discussing creation of a single market in data, like the one it already has for goods.

结果,近年来,虚拟国界已在数字云中兴起。GDPR仅在公司具有适当的保护措施或目的国具有“足够的保护水平”时,才允许个人数据离开欧盟。印度禁止付款信息离开该国,并可能很快要求某些类型的个人数据永远不能离开该国。俄罗斯要求将数据放在领土内的服务器上处理和存储。中国拦截了大多数国际数据流。欧盟正在讨论建立一个单一数据市场,就像已有的单一商品市场那样。

These growing and unco-ordinated efforts to regain data sovereignty have already triggered debates at the highest level of international diplomacy. In July the G20, a group of 20 developing and rich countries, launched the “Osaka Track”, named after the Japanese city where the decision was taken. The idea, which Abe Shinzo, Japan’s prime minister, floated early last year is to come up with some global rules for “data governance”, guided by the rather fuzzy concept of “free flow of data with trust”.

为重获数据主权而展开的这些行动不断增多且毫无协调,已经引发了国际外交最高层面的辩论。由20个发展中国家和富裕国家组成的20国集团(G20)在7月启动了《大阪框架》(Osaka Track),以提出该框架的峰会的举办地命名。日本首相安倍晋三于去年初提出了相关想法,要在“信任的数据自由流动”这一相当模糊的概念的指导下,提出一些有关“数据治理”的全球规则。

It is still unclear where all this will lead. What will the world map in Microsoft’s cloud centre look like a decade hence? Will it resemble today’s global maps, showing as many data zones as there are countries? Or will it display a few digital trade zones (known as “data spheres”) or something completely different?

目前尚不清楚这一切会走向何方。十年后,微软云中心的世界地图将是什么模样?它会类似于今天的全球地图,数据区的数量和国家一样多吗?还是会显示一些被称为“数据领域”(Data sphere)的数字贸易区?抑或是完全不同的东西?

The first possibility is rather unlikely. To prevent all data from flowing, countries would essentially have to cut their connection to the internet: it would be the only way to ensure that data really stays put. Russia may be willing to accept the huge economic costs of such a digital secession. But most countries will probably shy away from the drawbacks of even less draconian measures. An overly protectionist country could see cloud-computing providers refuse to serve their market because it is too small. Building a domestic cloud is both tricky and expensive.

第一种情景的可能性很小。要防止所有的数据流动,各国实际上必须切断与互联网的连接:这是确保数据真正留在原地的唯一方法。俄罗斯可能愿意接受这种数字分离的巨大经济成本。但哪怕不是这么严厉的措施,其弊端可能也是大多数国家都会去规避的。一个过度保护主义的国家可能会发现,云计算提供商因为它规模太小而拒绝为其市场提供服务。建立国内云既棘手又昂贵。

The second scenario is far more likely. In fact, this is already happening. Coalitions for different types of data have begun to form. The GDPR’s adequacy requirement effectively created one: the need to export personal data from the EU pushed a dozen countries, including America and Japan, to agree to strict data-protection rules. America has started a similar club with the Cloud Act, a bill passed in 2018 to allow the government to negotiate reciprocity agreements with other countries. If these allow American law enforcement to access data stored in partner territory more rapidly than is possible today, agencies in those countries can get easier reciprocal access, too. Britain has already signed such an agreement; the EU is expected to do so soon.

第二种情景发生的可能性就大多了。实际上,它已经在发生了。不同类型数据的联盟已经开始形成。GDPR对“适当性”的要求实际上就创造了一个这样的联盟:从欧盟出口个人数据的需求促使包括美国和日本在内的十几个国家同意严格的数据保护规则。美国于2018年通过的《云法案》(Cloud Act)成立了一个类似的俱乐部,该法案旨在允许政府与其他国家谈判互惠协议。如果这些措施使美国执法部门能够比今天更快地访问存储在伙伴国家领土内的数据,那么这些国家的政府机构也可以获得更便利的对等访问权。英国已经签署了这样的协议;欧盟也有望在近期达成。

Although the Osaka Track talks are meant to come up with global rules, they could end up creating another data coalition. The initiative started life as a proposal by the Japanese government to form an alliance with America and the EU to promote the free flow of data between members and to limit access by countries which indulge in data protectionism, notably China. If that is still the agenda, it could push China and others to create their own data club, warns Justin Sherman of New America, a think-tank. In an early sign of what this may mean, India and a few other developing countries have refused to sign up to the Osaka Track.

尽管《大阪框架》谈判的目的是要制定全球规则,但它最终可能会创造另一个数据联盟。该动议最初是由日本政府提案,意图与美国和欧盟结成联盟以促进成员间的数据自由流动,并限制沉迷于数据保护主义的国家(尤其是中国)的访问。智库“新美国”的贾斯汀·谢尔曼(Justin Sherman)警告说,如果目标仍然如此,它可能会推动中国和其他国家创建自己的数据俱乐部。印度和其他一些发展中国家已经拒绝签署《大阪框架》,透露出一些可能的趋向。

The third possible future of the global data sphere is again less likely, but the most intriguing. Somewhat unexpectedly, it is rooted in Germany and comes by the name of GAIA-X, referring to the goddess of Earth in Greek mythology, with the X being a placeholder for future specialisation (GAIA-Health, GAIA-Mobility). Rightly feeling that the country is behind in cloud computing and risks losing control of its data economy, the German government first considered building something like an “Airbus Cloud”, like a repeat of Europe’s successful aeroplane consortium. Realising that this would probably fail, however, the government has settled on another approach. It hopes to assemble what the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs calls a “federated data infrastructure”, essentially a club of clouds whose members have to comply with a set of rules and standards.

全球数据领域的第三种未来情景出现的可能性也不大,但最令人着迷。出乎意料的是,它起源于德国,名叫“盖亚X”(GAIA-X)。盖亚是希腊神话中大地女神的名字,而“X”则用来在日后填上专业化版本(盖亚健康、盖亚移动)。德国政府准确地感觉到该国在云计算方面处于落后地位,并有失去对数据经济的控制的风险。它首先考虑建造“空中客车云”之类的东西,想让欧洲飞机联合企业的成功故事重演。不过在意识到这可能失败后,德国政府决定采用另一种方法。它希望组建德国联邦经济事务部所说的“联合数据基础架构”,实质上就是一个云俱乐部,其成员必须遵守一组规则和标准。

The main aim is still one of industrial policy: seeding the formation of an “über-cloud”, a legal-cum-software layer that would insulate German firms and government agencies from the power of big foreign clouds by minimising “lock-in”. Although details have yet to be worked out, it would probably allow firms to move data and computing workloads between rival clouds more easily. GAIA-X could be a tool to implement granular national data policy, instead of resorting to crude digital protectionism. It could help solve the problem of American or Chinese firms dominating the global data infrastructure. The project also includes an initiative called “International Data Spaces” to make data-sharing between firms and across borders easier.

主要目标仍然是一项工业政策:为“超云”(über-cloud)的形成铺平道路。这是一个法律兼软件层,通过最大程度地减少“锁定”,使德国公司和政府机构免受大型外国云的影响。尽管细节尚需推敲,但它可能会使公司更轻松地在各个云服务竞争对手之间迁移数据和计算工作负载。盖亚X可以成为实施精细国家数据政策的工具,而不是诉诸于原始的数字保护主义。它可以帮助解决美国或中国公司主导全球数据基础架构的问题。该项目还包括一项名为“国际数据空间”的计划,让公司之间以及跨边境的数据共享更为便捷。

Yet it is not clear how the German government intends to will this über-cloud into existence, says Stefan Heumann of the Stiftung Neue Verantwortung, a think-tank in Berlin—nor how it does not end up being a lowest common denominator or held up by lengthy negotiations. The plan is to have a “proof of concept” ready by the second quarter of this year, but don’t hold your breath.

不过,德国政府到底准备如何让这个“超云”变成现实尚不清楚,柏林智库新责任基金会 (Stiftung Neue Verantwortung)的斯蒂凡·霍伊曼(Stefan Heumann)表示。同样不清楚它会如何避免沦为最低的共识,或是被漫长的谈判拖延。其计划是在今年第二季度之前准备好“概念验证”,但也别报太大希望。

Still, the idea may gain momentum. The German government intends to push the concept when it takes over the presidency of the European Council later this year. France has already signalled support; other countries are expected to join. And some 100 firms and organisations have already joined the effort, including the big cloud providers. The only notable exception, until recently, had been Microsoft. This was a surprise: Azure is the most compatible with Germany’s vision. Whether because it has always had many governments as customers or the fact that it does not make money by hoarding data, from the start Microsoft has built its cloud for a world with a data space fragmented along national lines.

尽管如此,这个想法仍可能势头大增。德国政府打算在今年晚些时候接手欧洲理事会主席时推动这一构想。法国已经表示支持。预计其他国家也将加入。已有约100家公司和组织参与其中,包括大型云提供商。直到最近,唯一值得注意的例外是微软。这令人惊讶,因为Azure与德国的愿景最为吻合。不管是因为它一直有许多政府客户,还是因为它并不通过囤积数据来赚钱,微软从一开始就是在为一个数据空间沿国家线分裂的世界构建云。

If the vision of GAIA-X comes to pass, how will Microsoft display this on the screens of its CCC? Rather than showing a few data “blocs” in bright colours—China red, America blue, for instance, as during the cold war—it may need lots of shades and other graphic tricks to represent the new diversity of the data world.■

如果盖亚X的愿景得以实现,微软又将如何在CCC的屏幕上显示它呢?与其以鲜艳的色彩显示几个数据“块”(比如像冷战期间那样,中国红色、美国蓝色),它可能还需要很多阴影和其他图形技巧来表示数据世界的新多样性。■