FlyTitle: Derivatives

Airbus wants to help airlines hedge ticket prices. Will that fly?

空客想要帮助航空公司对冲机票价格。行得通吗?

经济学人双语版-票价游戏 Fare play

THERE IS NOTHING that maddens online shoppers more than seeing air fares rocket just as they are about to click “buy”. Yet price turbulence may be an even bigger headache for airlines. Whereas carriers have some control over fares, these can be buffeted by surges in supply or demand, caused, say, by economic slumps or political rows. Over the past five years, ticket prices on a given date (net of taxes and fees) have varied by an average of 7% in Asia and 16% in Europe. Even in North America, where airlines have more pricing power, volatility hovers around 7%. Most carriers have to wait until less than 90 days before take-off for 90% of their ticket revenues. So they are hard to forecast—a big problem, as airlines often commit billions of dollars years in advance to buy planes.

最让网购人士抓狂的事莫过于刚要点击“购买”就看到机票价格飞涨。但价格波动也许更让航空公司头痛。虽然航空公司对票价有一定的控制权,但经济下滑或政治纷争等因素导致的供应或需求激增可能会冲击票价。过去五年中,特定某天的机票价格(不含税费)在亚洲的平均波动率为7%,在欧洲为16%。即便在航空公司拥有更大定价权的北美,波动率也徘徊在7%左右。大多数航空公司要等到离起飞日90天内才能获得机票收入的90%。因此,要预测收入很难。而这是一个大问题,因为航空公司经常要提前几年投入数十亿美元购买飞机。

Fortunately for them Airbus, the world’s largest planemaker, has a fix. On January 20th it launched Skytra, a London-based exchange through which airlines can access futures, options or swaps to hedge against big swings in ticket prices. Those derivatives contracts will be based on indices that track daily changes in the price of travel (measured as a cost per passenger per km). Airlines can buy these through banks and brokers that join the exchange. Skytra expects to get the thumbs-up from British regulators in the summer.

好在世界上最大的飞机制造商空中客车找到了解决方法。1月20日,它推出了位于伦敦的交易所Skytra,航空公司可以通过它开展期货、期权或掉期交易,以对冲机票价格的大幅波动。这些衍生品合约将以跟踪航空旅行价格(以客公里价格衡量)每日变化的指数为基础。航空公司可通过加入交易所的银行和经纪商购买它们。Skytra预期在今年夏天会得到英国监管机构的批准。

If the new tool helps carriers stabilise earnings, it would also reassure Airbus, which is sitting on an order backlog of 7,482 aircraft—nine years’ worth of production. Nineteen airlines folded last year; with better risk management the number might have been lower. Boeing, Airbus’s rival, has seen hundreds of its 737 MAX planes grounded after two crashes. Uncertainty over when they will fly again makes hedging all the more attractive. More data and greater processing power have also helped make hedging easier, says Elise Weber, one of Skytra’s founders.

如果这件新工具能够帮助航空公司稳定收益,那也能让空客安心——该公司已经积压了7482架飞机的订单,相当于九年的产量。去年有19家航空公司倒闭。如果当初风险管理做得更好些,倒闭的公司说不定会少一点。空客的竞争对手波音在两次坠机事故后已有数百架737 MAX飞机被禁飞,何时能解禁还不得而知,这就更加大了对冲的吸引力。Skytra的创始人之一艾莉斯·韦伯(Elise Weber)说,数据增多以及处理能力增强也让对冲变得更容易。

Sceptics say the platform could struggle to take off. Airlines have not been voracious users of derivatives. Some do not even hedge fuel prices, their biggest cost: only 40% of the kerosene set to be consumed in the next year is hedged. Few Asian and Middle Eastern carriers buy hedges because they do not really understand them, says an executive at a rival exchange. More complex derivatives that reference ticket prices could flummox them.

怀疑人士认为这个交易平台可能难以成功。航空公司一向对衍生品不大积极。有些甚至对占成本最大头的燃料价格都没有做对冲:明年预计将消耗的航空煤油只有40%被做了对冲。竞争对手交易所的一位高管表示,没什么亚洲和中东的航空公司购买对冲产品,因为它们不太懂这些。更复杂的机票价格衍生品可能会让它们更加茫然无措。

For the market to work, the airlines need counterparties. These could include businesses that buy blocks of plane tickets, such as travel agents or hotel chains, suggests Matthew Tringham, a co-founder of Skytra. But few make use of simpler existing hedges against swings in weather or currency. And few would feel able to forecast ticket prices better than the airlines themselves. Low demand would limit liquidity and make trading dear. That could deter banks and brokers from acting as market makers, further sapping liquidity.

这个市场要正常运转,航空公司就需要交易对手。Skytra的联合创始人马修·特林汉姆(Matthew Tringham)指出,交易对手可能包括旅行社或连锁酒店等大量购买机票的企业。但是,这些企业目前就很少利用更简单的、现有的对冲工具来应对天气变化或汇率波动,更没有几家会自认为能在预测机票价格方面比航空公司做得更好。需求低迷会限制流动性,导致交易价格高昂。这可能会让银行和经纪公司打消充当做市商的念头,进一步削弱流动性。

At least Skytra is well-equipped. On January 23rd it said it had chosen Nasdaq, the world’s second-largest stock exchange, as its technology provider. Mark Howarth, its boss, has worked at London’s stock exchange and Chi-X, an Asian venue. That will cheer City types who question Airbus’s markets nous. Airlines and travel groups may take longer to get on board. ■

至少Skytra做了周全的准备。1月23日,该交易所表示已选择全球第二大证券交易所纳斯达克作为其技术供应商。其老板马克·霍华斯(Mark Howarth)曾在伦敦的证券交易所和亚洲的交易所Chi-X工作。这将让伦敦金融城那类质疑空客有足够市场专业知识的人满意。但要让航空公司和旅行社“登机”,可能需要更长的时间。