FlyTitle: Business and the pandemic

Much of global commerce has ground to a halt. Some firms will never restart

全球大部分商业活动都按下了暂停键。有些公司永远不会重启【新冠报道】

经济学人双语版-病毒大屠杀 Covid carnage

“THE COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant impact around the world,” warned Fred Smith, boss of FedEx, at his firm’s earnings conference on March 17th. That is putting it mildly. The express-delivery giant announced that it was slashing its delivery capacity and, for the first time ever, refused to give earnings guidance. While economists debate whether this recession will be short-lived or sustained, bosses the world over already see mayhem. The virus has destroyed $23trn in global market value since mid-February.

“新冠肺炎大流行正在全世界产生重大影响。”联邦快递的老板弗雷德·史密斯(Fred Smith)3月17日在公司财报会议上警告说。这么说已经算是委婉的了。这家快递巨头宣布正在大幅削减运力,还史无前例地拒绝给出盈利预告。经济学家仍在争论这场经济衰退会是短暂还是持久的,而全世界的企业老板们已经焦头烂额。自2月中以来,全球市值已在疫情中蒸发了23万亿美元。

As governments curb citizens’ activities—including much of commerce—in an effort to save lives, the ranks of corporate casualties are swelling. Fewer people are taking planes, hailing rides, eating out, staying in hotels, going to cinemas or gathering just about anywhere. Most American and European sports leagues have been suspended. Formula 1 motor-racing has ground to a standstill. Apple and Nike have closed most of their stores outside of China. Carmakers including Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen are shutting factories in Europe and America.

为挽救生命,各国政府纷纷限制民众活动,包括大部分商业活动,企业的伤亡队伍随之扩大。人们坐飞机、打车、外出就餐、住酒店、看电影或者在各种场合的聚会都减少了。美国和欧洲的大多数体育联赛都已暂停。一级方程式赛车也已停赛。苹果和耐克关闭了中国以外的大部分门店。福特、丰田和大众等汽车制造商正在关闭欧美的工厂。

The bloodletting will continue. Scott Stringer, New York’s finance chief, predicts that the city’s hotels will be two-thirds empty until the end of June. Its restaurants and bars, ordered shut, could see sales drop by 80%. The American Hotel and Lodging Association fears a blow exceeding the impact of September 11th 2001 and the “Great Recession” of 2008 combined. Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons retail foot traffic may plunge by 60% in coming weeks, as more American cities follow many European ones into lockdown.

经济失血将持续。纽约市的主计长斯科特·斯特林格(Scott Stringer)预测,6月底前纽约酒店的空置率将保持在三分之二。餐厅和酒吧被下令关闭,营业额可能减少八成。美国酒店业协会担心,这次的打击可能比2001年911事件和2008年“大衰退”加起来还要严重。摩根士丹利估计,随着越来越多美国城市效仿欧洲进入封城状态,未来几周零售业的客流量可能锐减60%。

Many companies will pull through. Governments are rushing in to ensure as many as possible do. Britain last week unveiled a £330bn ($382bn) package of loan guarantees and other support for businesses. America’s Federal Reserve earlier said it would create a new funding facility to provide liquidity to American issuers of commercial paper. President Donald Trump has called for $1trn in economic stimulus.

许多公司会捱过难关。各国政府连忙出手,尽可能救助更多企业。英国上周宣布了一项3300亿英镑(3820亿美元)的一揽子计划,为企业提供贷款担保等支持。美联储早些时候表示将建立新的融资工具,为美国商业票据的发行人提供流动性。总统特朗普呼吁国会通过一万亿美元的经济刺激方案。

Even so, some firms will not make it. It is too early to say for sure who the corporate fatalities will be. To get a sense of which are most at risk, liquidity and business model are a good place to start.

即便如此,有些公司将无力回天。现在要判断哪些会倒下还为时尚早。要了解哪些公司最危险,可以从流动性和商业模式着手。

Take liquidity first. American firms account for 55% of global non-financial debt maturing until the end of 2024, and 62% of debt rated junk, according to S&P Global, a rating agency. Non-financial firms in America will see $394bn in investment-grade debt and $87bn in junk debt fall due this year; the figures for next year are $461bn and $195bn. Potential trouble spots include construction (with nearly $30bn in junk debt due by the end of 2021), media and entertainment ($35bn), and energy and utilities ($56bn).

先说流动性。据评级机构标普信评(S&P Global)称,美国企业占2024年底前到期的全球非金融债务的55%,垃圾级债券的62%。美国非金融企业将有3940亿美元的投资级债券和870亿美元的垃圾级债券在今年到期;明年到期的规模分别为4610亿美元和1950亿美元。潜在的爆雷点包括建筑业(2021年底前有近300亿美元垃圾级债券到期)、媒体和娱乐业(350亿美元),以及能源与公用事业(560亿美元)。

Oil companies in particular have been clobbered by the steep fall in the price of crude, which sank to $25 a barrel on March 18th, the lowest level in nearly two decades. Morgan Stanley calculates that the median exploration and production firm needs an oil price of $51 a barrel to break even. Saudi Aramco, the world’s mightiest oil colossus, said it might cut capital spending by up to a quarter this year. America’s ExxonMobil echoed that it will make “significant” cuts.

受油价暴跌影响,石油公司受到的打击尤其严重。3月18日原油价格跌至每桶25美元,是近20年来的最低水平。根据摩根士丹利计算,中等勘探和开采公司需要油价达到每桶51美元才能保本。全球实力最雄厚的石油巨头沙特阿美表示今年可能将资本开支削减最多四分之一。美国的埃克森美孚也表示将采取“重大”削减。

Oilmen are not the only ones trying to preserve cash. Many companies are sending workers on leave or worse. Norwegian Air Shuttle, an airline, is temporarily laying off 90% of its 10,000 employees. Marriott International, the world’s largest hotel chain, said on March 17th that it will have to let go of tens of thousands of workers.

并不是只有石油公司在设法保留现金。许多公司让员工休假,甚至更糟。挪威航空公司(Norwegian Air Shuttle)临时裁掉了一万名员工中的九成。世界最大的连锁酒店万豪国际3月17日表示将不得不裁员数万人。

Companies are rushing to tap credit lines secured with their bankers. AB InBev, the world’s biggest brewer, is drawing down its $9bn revolving credit. Boeing, a troubled aerospace giant, has accessed $13.8bn. Carnival Cruise Line hopes to stay afloat thanks to a $3bn lifeline. Bloomberg, a financial-data firm, reckons that if firms in five big sectors (health care, energy, transport, leisure and mining) drew down 70% of their credit lines, and the rest tapped 30% of theirs, America’s biggest banks would be on the hook for $700bn.

企业争相提取其银行提供的信用额度。世界最大酿酒商百威英博(AB InBev)正在取用其90亿美元的循环贷款。麻烦缠身的航空业巨头波音已经使用了138亿美元的信贷。嘉年华邮轮(Carnival Cruise Line)希望拽住30亿美元的救生索而不至沉没。金融数据公司彭博估计,如果五大行业(医疗、能源、运输、休闲和采矿)的公司用掉70%的信用额度,而其他行业动用30%,那么美国最大的几家银行将要掏出7000亿美元。

Companies’ second vulnerability besides a liquidity crunch arises from their business models. Some tried and tested ones suddenly look rather fragile in the age of pandemic. If Apple does not sell a new iPhone it may still convince consumers to buy one later. Revenues from a restaurant meal not eaten or a forgone trip to the cinema are lost for ever.

除流动性危机外,企业的另一个软肋源自其商业模式。在疫情大流行的年代,一些久经考验的商业模式突然显得格外脆弱。如果苹果在这期间没能卖出新款iPhone,它或许仍能说服消费者日后再买。但人们放弃去餐馆或电影院,这些收入就永远流失了。

That is bad news for industries like the arts, which depend on a few big, one-off events—at least in countries like Britain, where state-funding of the arts is less lavish that in France, Germany or Gulf sheikhdoms. Art Basel Hong Kong was cancelled last month. The main Art Basel fair in Switzerland, which is due to open on June 18th, may also not go ahead. Galleries that depend on such fairs, as many do, could see as much as 80% of their sales evaporate.

这对艺术等行业很不利,它们的收入依赖于几场一次性的大型活动,至少在英国等国家是这样,那里对艺术产业的政府资助远不如法国、德国或海湾酋长国家那么慷慨。上个月,香港巴塞尔艺术展取消。订于6月18日开幕的巴塞尔艺术展瑞士主展会可能也无法如期举行。许多艺廊都依赖这类展会,它们的销售收入可能有高达80%要化为泡影。

No surprise, then, that the coronavirus is provoking some soul-searching, especially in conservative industries. On March 20th Art Basel Hong Kong will launch online “viewing rooms” with more than 231 galleries—over 90% of the original exhibitor line-up. They will offer over 2,000 artworks worth a total of $270m. The crisis is also breaking down Hollywood bosses’ stubborn attachment to the old-fashioned model of distributing films in theatres. Universal Pictures is making some movies available at home on the same day as their theatrical release. “The Invisible Man” and “Emma” can now be streamed online. Disney has released its popular “Frozen 2” on its newish Disney+ streaming service well ahead of schedule.

毫不意外,疫情正促使一些行业自省,尤其是比较保守的行业。香港巴塞尔艺术展在3月20日推出网上“展厅”,有超过231间艺廊参与——相当于原始参展阵容的90%以上。它们将展示两千多件作品,总价值2.7亿美元。这场危机也打破了好莱坞老板对传统影院发行模式的顽固坚持。环球影业的一些电影在影院上映当天即可在家中观看。《隐形人》和《艾玛》现已提供线上点播。迪士尼也在它新推出的流媒体服务Disney+上发布了热门电影《冰雪奇缘2》,比预定时间大大提前。

Some companies may not only survive the pandemic but thrive, either now or once it recedes. Supermarkets are struggling to keep up with demand from panic buying. Kimberly Clark and other peddlers of toilet paper, which many people are frantically stockpiling, are riding high, too. So are purveyors of cleaning products such as Clorox and Purell.

有些公司也许不仅能在这场大流行病中生存下来,甚至还活得很好——或者在疫情期间,或者在它消退之后。超市正在努力满足恐慌性采购。人们正疯狂囤积卫生纸,金佰利(Kimberly Clark)和其他供应卫生纸的公司也在这波行情中意气风发。清洁类产品的供应商也是如此,例如高乐氏(Clorox)和普瑞来(Purell)。

This boomlet will probably not last. Early panic will inevitably die down. Other industries may prosper for longer. By forcing many people to work, shop and amuse themselves at home, the crisis may give a permanent boost to online companies. Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Slack, WeChat Work and other corporate-messaging services are experiencing a surge in demand. Data from Sensor Tower, an analytics firm, suggests that weekly new users of such apps leapt from 1.4m in early January to 6.7m in early March. A survey in Britain for Barclaycard, a payments firm, points to year-on-year growth of 12% in subscription entertainment services like Netflix in the four weeks to February 21st, and of nearly 9% growth in food takeaway and delivery spending. Amazon is hiring 100,000 new distribution workers in America to meet demand for internet shopping.

这样的小高潮恐怕不会持久。早期的恐慌情绪必然会逐渐平息。其他行业也许会迎来更长久的繁荣。疫情迫使许多人在家工作、购物和娱乐,或许会给互联网公司带来长远的提振。Zoom、Microsoft Teams、Slack、企业微信和其他企业级通讯服务的需求正在激增。分析公司Sensor Tower的数据显示,此类应用的每周新增用户数从1月初的140万跃升至3月初的670万。英国支付机构巴克莱卡(Barclaycard)委托开展的一项调查显示,截至2月21日的四周内,奈飞(Netflix)等订阅式娱乐服务同比增长了12%,食品外卖和送货支出增长了近9%。亚马逊正在美国新招聘十万名配送员,以满足网上购物的需求。

Bricks-and-mortar firms that have invested in online offerings are also cashing in. A survey of American shoppers conducted on March 13th by Gordon Haskett, a research firm, found that one in three bought food online in the previous week. Among the 41% doing so for the first time, over half chose Walmart, with its convenient grocery pickup and delivery service. In Britain Tesco and Sainsbury may be outpacing Aldi and Lidl, European discount chains that have invested less online.

提前布局了线上服务的实体公司也在获利。调研公司Gordon Haskett3月13日对美国购物者的调查发现,三分之一的人曾在过去一周网购食品。其中有41%是首次购买,而他们当中超过一半选择了沃尔玛,就是看中它便利的食杂提货和送货服务。在英国,乐购(Tesco)和英佰瑞(Sainsbury)的发展速度就可能超过奥乐齐(Aldi)和利德(Lidl)这两家对线上服务投资较少的欧洲折扣连锁超市。

And, of course, any firm that comes up with a vaccine or treatment for covid-19 can expect a bonanza. Amid the market meltdown the share price of Gilead, a biotechnology firm working on a coronavirus drug, is up by 20% this year.

另外,任何能拿出新冠病毒疫苗或疗法的公司自然会一飞冲天。市场崩盘之际,正在测试一种抗病毒药物的生物科技公司吉利德(Gilead)今年以来股价已经上涨了20%。

One lasting consequence of the pandemic will almost certainly be further concentration of corporate power in the hands of a few superstar firms. The current airline carnage may leave skies everywhere resembling the uncompetitive ones above North America. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, observes that American carriers generate two-thirds of global airline profits with barely a fifth of worldwide capacity (not to mention shabby service). Similar consolidation now looks all too probable in Europe and Asia.

病毒大流行几乎肯定会带来一个长期后果:企业影响力进一步向少数几家超级明星公司集中。航空公司正在被疫情“血洗”,结果可能是世界各地的航空业都变得和美国一样缺乏竞争。摩根大通注意到,尽管美国的航空公司运力顶多占全世界的五分之一(更不用提差劲的服务),却赚取了全球航空业利润的三分之二。现在看来,欧洲和亚洲非常可能出现类似的整合。

Companies with the most resilient businesses, deepest pockets and longest investment horizons may grow more super still through cut-price acquisitions. Rumours swirl that Apple, with a gross cash pile of over $200bn and Tinseltown ambitions, may swoop in to buy Disney, whose share price has nearly halved since January. Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway, who is sitting on $128bn and has long grumbled about overpriced equities, may at last find a bargain or two. Having raised a record $888bn last year, private-equity firms are on the prowl. Steve Schwartzman declared earlier this month that the dislocation and fear caused by the coronavirus has created “a substantial opportunity” for Blackstone, the buy-out powerhouse he leads.

业务最具韧性、财力最雄厚、投资周期最长的公司也许会通过低价收购进一步壮大。迪士尼的股价自1月以来几乎腰斩,有传言称坐拥2000亿美元现金储备而且有意进军好莱坞的苹果可能会趁虚而入,出手收购迪士尼。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的巴菲特手握1280亿美元,以前一直抱怨股价过高,也许总算可以找到一两笔划算的买卖。私募股权公司去年募集了创纪录的8880亿美元资金,现在正四处物色目标。并购巨头黑石集团(Blackstone)的CEO苏世民(Steve Schwartzman)本月早些时候宣称,新冠疫情造成的混乱和恐惧为黑石创造了“重大机遇”。

The Depression wreaked economic havoc but also produced radical new business models from carmaking and entertainment to beauty products. In time, today’s crisis, too, may lead to some corporate resurrections—and plenty of new births. Comparisons to that agonising time in world history must not be made lightly. That they look apt is a sign of just how bad things are looking right now. ■

当年的大萧条给经济造成了严重破坏,但同时也催生了截然不同的新商业模式,从汽车制造、娱乐,到美容产品等。今天的危机最后同样可能促成大企业复兴,也会有大量新公司诞生。我们不能轻率地把眼下的状况与世界历史上的那个痛苦年代相提并论。而这种比较看似恰当,也显现出形势看起来有多糟糕。