Foreign adventure, discovery and hedonism are on hold. They will be back
海外探险和享乐按下暂停键。它们会重启的

【双语】夏季小休 Summer break-书迷号 shumihao.com

TOURISM IS THE most popular and least controversial form of globalisation. For those travelling abroad it promises an infinite variety of pleasures, from admiring Titians in Venice to sipping piña coladas in Goa. For the host countries it brings in cash—lots of it. The industry accounts for 7% of world exports and 330m jobs. But business is on pause. Ticket sales at Angkor Wat in Cambodia are down by 99.5% compared with last year and countless Mediterranean sunbeds lie empty. Around the world a vital question is being asked: what will happen to the summer holidays? The answer is that tourism will be back—but not in exactly the same form, and only if NIMBYS and governments don’t spoil the fun.

旅游是最受欢迎、争议最少的全球化形式了。在那些出国旅行的人看来,它能带来千变万化的乐趣,例如在威尼斯欣赏提香的画作,或者在果阿啜饮椰林飘香。而对于东道国来说,它带来了滚滚现金。这个产业贡献了全球出口的7%,创造了3.3亿个就业岗位。但现在业务暂停了。柬埔寨吴哥窟的门票收入比去年下降了99.5%,地中海边无数张日光浴床也空置着。全世界都在问一个至关重要的问题:今夏的假日季会发生什么?答案是旅游业会再度归来——但形式不会与以往完全相同,而且前提是“邻避者”和政府不来扫兴。

Over the past half-century the travel industry has grown faster than a beach-bar tab on a sunny afternoon. In 1970 fewer than 200m people went on holiday abroad; last year the figure was 1.5bn. Soaring incomes in China explain part of the increase. It has also become cheaper to fly and easier to browse for the perfect swimming pool online—Expedia lists 1m hotels and properties. Visa rules have been loosened. The average person in the rich world can travel to over 100 countries without a visa, compared with 50 half a century ago, and the rules have got easier for people in emerging economies, too. As the industry has boomed, small firms and workers have prospered from the business of holidays. Some 80 countries, including Tanzania, Thailand and Turkey, rely on tourism for a tenth or more of their exports.

过去半个世纪里,旅游业的发展速度超过了午后明媚阳光下沙滩酒吧的涨价速度。1970年出国度假的人不到2亿,去年达到15亿。这一增长的部分原因是中国人收入猛增。此外坐飞机也变得更便宜了,在网上搜寻完美的泳池也更加容易——Expedia列出了100万家酒店和物业。签证规定已经放宽。富裕国家的普通人无需签证就可以去100多个国家旅行,半个世纪前能去50个。面向新兴经济体民众的签证也放宽了。随着旅游业蓬勃发展,小企业和劳动者靠假日生意把日子过得红红火火。包括坦桑尼亚、泰国和土耳其在内的约80个国家出口的十分之一或更多依赖旅游业。

These countries’ need for foreign exchange means that they are desperate to ensure this summer is not a write-off. Hotel firms are keen to fill rooms and younger consumers are prepared to take risks, judging by the packed beaches in America on Memorial Day. Nonetheless, caution is warranted. By jamming together people from around the world, tourism can be a lethal spreader of the virus. A single bar in an Austrian ski resort may have caused outbreaks across Europe, while cruise ships turned into floating biohazards. That means tourism in 2020 and 2021 will necessarily involve restrictions. One is filtering visitors by nationality. Cyprus plans to open on June 9th to most European tourists, but not those from Britain and Russia, two covid-19 hot-spots. America has just banned visitors from Brazil. Another fix is lower density. Brian Chesky, the boss of Airbnb, reports a surge in bookings for out-of-town dwellings. All told, the number of tourists this summer will be a fraction of normal levels.

这些国家需要外汇,因此不顾一切地想要确保今年夏天不会是一场空。酒店企业渴望把客房填满,而且从美国国殇日这天各处海滩的拥挤程度来看,较年轻的消费者也甘愿冒险。尽管如此,谨慎仍是必要的。旅游让世界各地的人们聚集在一起,因而可能成为致命的病毒传播途径。单是奥地利某个滑雪胜地的一家酒吧可能就引发了整个欧洲的疫情,而邮轮也成了浮动的生物公害。这意味着今明两年旅游业不可避免地会实施限制措施。一种是按国籍筛选游客。塞浦路斯计划在6月9日向大多数欧洲游客开放,但不包括来自英国和俄罗斯这两个疫情重灾区的人。美国刚刚下令禁止巴西游客入境。另一个解决办法是降低人群密度。爱彼迎的老板布莱恩·切斯基(Brian Chesky)报告称市郊房源的预订量激增。合计下来,今夏的游客数量将是正常水平的一小部分。

In the long term, supposing a vaccine is found, the picture is brighter. Even if some consumers remain nervous, the industry will adapt. Marriott has appointed a cleanliness council and is introducing electrostatic disinfectant sprayers; Airbus is working on touchless bathrooms. Better testing will give travellers and governments confidence that outbreaks can be managed.

长远而言,假设能找到疫苗,前景将会更好。即使一些消费者仍旧很紧张,旅游业会做出调整来适应这种心态。万豪已经成立了一个清洁卫生委员会,引进了静电消毒喷雾器;空客公司正在研发无接触式卫生间。检测手段的改善也会给旅行者和政府以信心,相信疫情的局部爆发能被控制住。

The big danger is that temporary barriers become hard to remove because of squabbling and lobbying. At the end of April more than 150 countries were closed to foreign tourists. Ongoing restrictions include quarantines and incompatible tracing apps. History suggests that it is complacent to assume these will just fall away. It took a global summit in 1920 to set rules on passports and travel after a world war and Spanish flu closed borders—and some western Europeans needed visas to go to America as recently as 1991. Already the politics of travel in Asia have caused tensions. Meanwhile, NIMBYS may seek to keep tourists out of the world’s most beautiful but busiest cities.

一大危险是,争吵和游说会导致临时的壁垒变得难以撤除。4月底,150多个国家对外国游客关闭了国门。仍在实施的限制包括隔离和使用彼此不兼容的跟踪应用。从历史经验看,如果认为这些都会自行消失就太想当然了。一战和西班牙流感导致边境关闭,1920年召开了一次全球峰会才制定出有关护照和旅行的规则——而一些西欧人直到1991年都还需要签证才能去美国。在亚洲,旅游方面的政治角力已擦出火药味。与此同时,邻避者可能会设法让游客远离世界上最美丽也最繁忙的城市。

This summer should be used to make tourism work better. That means taxes and more astute planning to tackle overcrowding. And as the global travel and airline industries restructure, there is a chance to speed up the introduction of aircraft with lower carbon emissions. It must not take decades before the world returns to the levels of openness that it had as recently as January. Tourism makes the world wealthier and happier. It should be on only a temporary break.■

人们应该利用这个夏天改善旅游业。应该通过征税和更精明的规划解决过度拥挤的问题。而在全球旅游业和航空业重组之时,也有机会加速推出碳排放更低的飞机。切不可耗个几十年才让世界回归一直持续到今年1月份的那种开放的程度。旅游业让世界更富裕也更幸福。给它放个小假就行了。